Serbian Parliamentary Elections 2007 (updated)
Source: www.b92.net
First results:
SRS 28,5
DS 22,9
DSS 17,00
G17 6,8
SPS 6,1
LDP 5,00 (Pay attention: Cvijus owes me a case of beer if these guys make it to the parliament)
Update
Seats in the parliament:
SRS 81
DS 64
DSS-NS 47
G17 19
SPS 16
LDP 15 seats.
Hungarian minority 3 seats
Bosniak minority 2,
two Roma parties will have 1 seat each.
Albanian minority party 1 seat.
There are several possibilities for the next government:
DS+DSS+G17
or SRS+DSS.
The Big Question is will DSS let DS have the prime minister position? Personally i think they have to do that, everything else would mean they will go together with Radicals, and that would be a political suicide for them.
Negative surprise is: SPS in parliament again, and positive surprise is: LDP in parliament for the first time.
Tweet
What case of beer????
hehehe, fair and square, I’m a man of my word
))) It was “Jelen” beer, right?
Now to get real, I think that the future government would be a minority government onse again, however this time I think it would be DS-DSS-G17+-minorities (I think they’re around 3% alltogether), which for me it is acceptable, only that our sleeping beauty Kostunica doesn’t remain as prime minister, V. Ilic as minister of capital BS and Jocic as the police minister. But let’s await for the final results on the 25th, maybe I will get the case of beer after all
My question is: does anyone really want to rule right now, and be remembered as the government that lost Kosovo?
Michael, i don’t think that would be a problem for anyone (except maybe SRS)
Cvijus, Jelen beer would be fine, thank you.
Actually LDP cannot wait for that to happen.
Victore, are you sure can drink all alone a whole case of Jelen beer?
))
Did you catch the victory speech by Ceda last night? (in a rather football like atmposphere)
It was something like ‘...I’d like to thank all the people of Kosovo (people too drunk to notice but this would have caused silence normally)...... and I’d like to thank the people of Croatia and the people of Slovenia, Romania, Albania…. (oh thats ok then, he’s alluding to the fact that he see’s Kosovo as a foreign country phew! For a moment I thought, and he deliberately made me think, that he was thanking the Serbs of Kosovo for voting for LDP)
Yeah it will be a coalition government alright but the big question is now how they will divvy up the cake. Who’s it gonna be, will it be you, will it be me???
Personally speaking I’d like an unholy government alliance consisting of DS, DSS and LDP (exclude G17 this time round – less is more). This has a number of advantages first and above all it would ensure that the go slow approach by Kostunica would not work any longer. It would be more like LDP is the engine, DS is the driver and DSS is the guy sitting in the passenger seat. Clearly though it offers more to DS and to LDP as they will be able to pick up where Djindjics government left off in a number of policy areas and obviously would outnumber DSS more often than not.
But that is a pipe dream – neither Kostunica nor Ceda are interested in such an alliance. I blame Ceda more than Kostunica on this because I’m interested in results and not rhetoric – if an historic chance was presented to LDP to achieve their aims in tandem with DS they should take responsibility with both hands. However, one of the main slogans from LDP was no-cohabitation which in effect means no LDP in government and thus no change to current system. Of course the more cynical aim of LDP now is the pick the flesh from DS as it governs with G17 and DSS. LDP planners must be banking on a 10 percent vote at the next general election and they will hope for 15 percent. Therefore its not in the interest of LDP to govern now – even if they had not used that no-cohabitation slogan.
And now lets see how long they argue for their piece of the cake. Any bets. Constitutionally a new government must be convened within 3 months, if not repeat general elections will be held. If repeat general elections are held I might not vote (in disgust at the miserable idiots) but many Radicals will vote. DS, DSS and G17 know this so my bet is they will eventually make a deal.
Oh yes and one of these days I might mention the Kostunica / Tadic swap deal – until then use your imagination(s)!
Hmmmm….interesting.
Just what results, exactly, would you like to see, Bg Anon?
I would like to see a government that picks up the pace of reform. I used to worry about how speedy reform could hurt the country (particularly state workers) – even if I knew that reform was inevitable. But the pace has gone far too slowly.
DSS needs somebody to kick it up the backside to keep moving, G17 were fufilling that role to a lesser degree but now its time to move forward more quickly.
And I think a joint government that I mentioned represents many aspects of todays Serbia. Of course its problematic that one party is very radical and (neo)liberal in its approach and the other is conservative and slow but the two in the same government could provide the kind of balance needed – all other things being equal/ normal. But since most of the people involved arent normal that has no chance of happening. DSS and LDP are tribally opposed to one another.
Off the top of my head there a a few current scenarios – one is that Kostunica becomes a figurehead PM and DSS have hardly any other Ministries to ‘pay’ for this. The other is that Djelic becomes PM (this is less likely). Most likely is that Kostunica will force DS to lose face by trying to get rid of Djelic for no reason other than to make DS lose face / climbdown (remember DSS never had a problem with Djelic until a few weeks ago). In that case there are a couple more options – either DS put forward Vlahovic as a PM compromise candidate (if DSS and G17 agree to support him) or Tadic agrees to vacate the Presidency and nominates himself for Prime Minister. Kostunica would then stand for President with the support of DS. DS would also extract a promise from DSS not to behave the same way they did in the first DOS (constantly complaining about one thing or another – one foot inside government, one foot outside). In this scenario DS would still extract a high price from DSS for the loss of its designated candidate for PM although just maybe DSS could hold onto the Interior Ministry (so unfortunate that the one Ministry DSS really wants is also one of their worst Ministers).
Did you notice the turnout blackbird? I had a feeling turnout would be higher this time, it was due to the publics lack of interest in negative campaigning. Politicians are starting to grow up and realise the public dont want it – a good thing. I’m certain they are surprised – most politicians have a very low and stereotypical opinion of the Serbian people – many used to behave in that primative way because they believed the Serbian people were primative (although God forbid they would never say that in public!).
Now though I do believe that the insults and petty behaviour will be reduced. Oh I should add that I think that going negative impresses the least educated part of the population so this will slightly decrease support of the patriotic parties (thats not a slur on the patriotic parties – all research shows that the poorest and least educated tend to vote for the patriotic parties) that primarily behave this way – at first. Then, as they move towards the centre they will begin to pick up new voters.
i really thought this are professional serb-haters and genocide-glorifiers site like “viktor, the silly guy without a life”!
but now i realise you are just stupid!
it ain´t personal, but although you are disgusting, i wouldn´t have gone so far untill today.
ds in government (lol), tadic pm (great lol), djelic pm (lol)!
new and old pm vojo kostunica ! live with it!
but i also like it that vojo is called “sleeping beauty”! what´s the reason for that? because he has a political agenda? look at tadic, no political agenda exept eu is great, we should join!
tadic doesn´t care much about facts (no eu-constitution means no new eu members, and there won´t be a new constitution for decades, not just because britain is oposing it) or that no one invited serbia to join. who is calling you boris into eu? why can´t the others hear that call?
croatia HAS been called and is waiting now for 18 years, and will wait at least another 15.
what is it with boris that he´s not interested into serbias problems of today und keeps dreaming about serbias imaginary future within eu?
So what does this amount to, Bg Anon? Do politicians (and others who are not politicians, too?) have the opinion, secretly or not, that those that want to hold onto Kosovo are Serbia’s primitives? Well include me among them! I don’t think anyone has seen primitivism in Kosovo, for example, until recent years when the Albanians were given almost free reign to be as primitive as they wanted to toward Serbs. No wonder the Radicals got the most votes. What do the other parties offer? What?!
Ass-kissing Tadic and his ilk, running after the heels of the EU would never have my vote. Serbia is being convinced by such cretins that she NEEDS the EU. Well, does she? Does she? I don’t think so.
When will we have leaders that have the people’s well being at heart? Which of the current leadership (that has been in power) has done anything for the people of Serbia? The same voters in Serbia that I said recently had nobody to vote for have had to go 6 months to a year without any pay or are waiting for their pensions, promised way back last year. Why is the quality of the life of the people of Serbia always at the bottom of the list? Getting into the EU in…maybe…20 years is not going to help anyone in Serbia NOW except the politicians who are lining their own pockets. In any case, I wouldn’t make a serious bet that the EU will even be around by then. Have you noticed that the integrity of borders is being threatened throughtout Europe? As sovereignty continues to be erroded so the EU will disappear again. The way things stand today in Europe, there is no telling who will ruling what in 20 years’ time.
There is complete DISHONESTY in Serbian politics, except with the Radicals, so no wonder they got a lot of votes. The people might feel impotent, but they are not stupid. It’s time they sent a real message to the rulers. This message wasn’t strong enough. The next time it might be. One can only hope.
I think that the winner of these elections is Kostunica. I am not for him, but when you look at it, he is in the best negotiating position, since he is the only one that did not rule out the formation of a coalition with the Radicals. I dont think that he will be doing that since it would be his political suicide, but I am sure that he will be using this at the negotiations table.
I personally believe that there will be a coalition of DS-DSS-G17, and I think that it would be a good combination. I dont think Tadic will want LDP in his coalition, since Jovanovic broke out of DS, and I dont think that Tadic will form a coalition with him out of principle.
After all I think that G17 has much more to offer to the coalition that LDP.
Greetings,
Ivan
I had to update the post because DS lost one seat to Albanian minority party’s advantage. Apparently the promiles decided.
Anyway, Kostunica has two options now: New elections or to do everything DS wants. Radicals are out of the question. Why? Read this article under the title ‘What Radicals?’ EU doesn’t count radicals as a relevant party and Kostunica knows this. He also knows that going with radicals or going to new elections is a political suicide. So he has to accept everything, imho.
Btw, Ivan, DS is prepared to cooperate with LDP, i just heard one of their vice presidents on TV call them into government and Djelic said it yesterday too. I too would like to see LDP in government if it weakens DSS influence.
Do politicians (and others who are not politicians, too?) have the opinion, secretly or not, that those that want to hold onto Kosovo are Serbia’s primitives?
If that is your definition of primativism blackbird then I wonder? Nowhere in what I wrote could you see me saying that somebody stating a desire to see Kosovo within Serbia as primative. There may be the odd LDP supporter who see its that way but thats his problem. Worse still this person may harbour some irrational desire to seperate Serbia from Kosovo (just to get his own back on the people he believes caused his living standards to drop in the 1990’s) it is sad.
Kosovo to me is above all a human rights issue and the human rights of Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo are not being respected. I think its the responsibility of everybody to point this out – particularly those with a reformist viewpoint. Europe to them signifies those kinds of values so they should demand that Europe respect those values.
I’m disapointed that you equate petty behaviour, insults and negative campaigning with Kosovo. People that indulge in that kind of behaviour to my mind are primative but you connected this with Kosovo (I dont know how).
I also dont know what makes you think that the Radical party are honest. They are politicians for God’s sake its incredibly naieve to think that out of entire Serbian society, as if by magic, only they dont lie. Do you believe that about a political party in the US or UK never lies as well? If the answer is no then I’d like to ask you why on earth you think this is true for the radicals? Oh, you also bring to mind another point. Some analysts (I tend to agree) believe that if the radicals were to come to power support for them would drop drastically. People (like you blackbird) would soon find out that they lie too and in fact dont have relevant contemporary policies.
Sure they can engage with somebodies ‘gut’ or ‘stomach’ on national issues but look beneath the surface where are their policies? If you disagree with me then we can discuss their policies. I have read their party program – if you can call it that.
Most political parties in Serbia dont have a clue what to do until they are in power and then all they concern themselves with is dividing up the bounty. This is why I voted for the party that outlined its economic policies. Kosovo by the way wasnt an issue in the campaign as practically all parties have the same view – Kosovo within Serbia.
Personally I dont understand this gleeful EU bashing by you and XOZE – are y’ all living in the States and have another agenda? I’m proud to be European, the large majority of Serbian trade is done with EU countries and (for a subject dearer to you) it is European countries that are now questioning whether Kosovo should gain independence – not the US. BTW if it wasnt for the US hardline view on Kosovo independence it could even be an even diplomatic ‘battle’ between Kosovo Serbs and Albanians. Its the US position that will ensure eventually some form of conditional independence for Kosovo. I am also closer to European social principles (for example EU funds that go to poorer EU countries) than unrestrained capitalism offered to us by the US.
It is US economic policies that has influenced (neo)liberal economic policies in Europe through Margaret Thatcher’s Single European Act to todays situation where thousands of workers from state industries in France, Germany, Poland, Croatia, Serbia and so on are threatened with the sack. I personally, only reluctantly, support reform because I know how brutal life will become for poorer sections of the population. Unfortunately I cant stop it and nor can Serbia. Its countries like the US that dictate economic thinking that eventually impact on lives of those thousands of miles away. I point this out because I think responsibility for the economic reality in todays Serbia – jobs etc (much more important than whether Serbia should join the EU or not) should be laid in the right direction.
Ivan I dont think Kostunica is using that at the negotiating table because Tadic will call his bluff by saying ‘save this story for your electorate, we both know that would never happen’.
DS has already expressed that they would not mind seeing LDP in the governing coalition but its moot as we know that would never happen…
There is
”>Čeda Jovanović speech
In my opinion U.S. neocon policies, along with Britain’s and certainly Germany’s, in the Balkans have been DEPLORABLE and UNFORGIVEABLE. And they are also something I would call truly PRIMITIVE. The Clinton administration, Blair’s government and the various members of the German government of the last 20 years should all go on trial for this travesty. But the idea that there will ever be any justice in all this is so laughable as to seem insane. I abhor Tadic’s kissing up to them all, not just to the EU. He rules from an apparent position of weakness and weakness is all he ever projects to the west.
My point about the Radicals, and I probably didn’t express this clearly enough, is that people in Serbia are sick to death of their regressive living standards, and the lack of hope that goes along with them, which have been only made worse in recent years by those in power, and therefore the people who voted for the Radicals thumbed their noses at the rest of the candidates by doing so. It’s not that those voters are ignorant.
Go ahead and root for the EU. It won’t do Serbia any good, mark my words. The more countries the EU encompasses, the nearer Europe comes to its downfall. If you think Serbia has sovereignty problems now, just wait until she is part of the EU. It just stuns me how so many are so shortsighted!
One more thing — it’s really hard to find the political platform on which any of these parties was campaigning. Do you have a link or links to them? The only issues we ever hear being mentioned by any Serbian politicians are Mladic and Kosovo, and Kosovo only since the elections began looming.
If you go to the site of parties you can find their so called party programs, some of them are quite amusing. What I find tragic in Serbia is that nobody is interested in finding out the policies of the parties they want to vote for. They just vote without thinking. Still at least its better now than it used to me when it was a choice between Cetniks and Communists and one voted according to ones family tradition. However, this is still an abiding influence on choices at the ballot box
I know what to expect from the EU. And if you are asking me whether to choose between the EU or US or Russia I would choose the EU. It is Serbia’s future – whether Europe becomes only a trading block with the political elements removed or whether it has a constitution etc or not it remains Serbia’s destiny.
I’m glad to hear you lament US policies, I agree that they have been most unhelpful from a Serbian perspective but above all they have been unhelpful around the world – yes for the more fashionable issues such as Iraq but also increasing world poverty and environmental pollution.
Well I understand your point about the radicals – I well understand their frustration. Having said that voting for them (rather like voting SPS or SRS in the 1990’s) will actually make living standards much lower for all of Serbia. It would have the effect of pegging back the wages of the rich, decreasing employment for middle class jobs should we say and in the short term maintaining loss making jobs in state enterprises. But that short term cannot hold for long. You cannot buck the market – at least one little Serbia certainly is no match for global economic practice.
But I’m not with you on the soverignty issue. Sovereignty is not only overrated (the ‘apprearance of sovereignty’ is a more accurate statement), it doesnt exist. This is the age of the multinational company and vested interests. With the exception of perhaps the United States (but not really) no country is sovereign – particularly economically. Look at the currency markets, look at how interest rates are set in one country and how this is mirrored by others. No nation can go it alone, particularly a small nation.
And thats not even going into campaign contributions etc. Like we the people are really sovereign? I dont think so.
When I say sovereignty I mean it in the most basic sense: territorial borders. I am not referring to economic influence, cultural meshing and such because, you’re right, the barn door was opened on that a long time ago. In my early youth, I was naively opposed to borders, all borders, in principle. But you learn from life. Nothing has made it as clear to me as the last 15 – 20 years in the Balkans that allowing outsiders to tear down your borders is disasterous. This is exactly what awaits a Serbia that has EU membership in an era when Albania also has a it. First a massive and widespread braindrain with very few of the younger Serbs remaining in the country, followed by an influx into Serbia (and Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro) from Albania, Turkey, etc., and a territorial takeover without a single gun having to be fired or bomb being dropped. Of course, once this finally becomes undeniably clear that it is happening, the EU might change its laws about free movement between EU member countries, but I have no doubt it will be too late by then to prevent the complete change of the face of Europe as a whole, and countries like Serbia, specifically. The conquerors will win in the end. Their passion to take over is stronger than Serbia’s eroding self-preservation instinct.
But, what the hey! They’re telling us that global warming is dooming the planet, so I imagine that none of this matters anyway, right?
Well perhaps we can save a lengthy debate on the issue for another time because we are going off topic and I think that people are more interested in the election results.
In that regard did you notice the figures for diaspora voting – very disapointing, only 31.5 percent voted in this General Election?
I know there are problems regarding voter lists abroad but this really makes me wonder what the hell the government has been doing in regard to engaging with the diaspora at the Diaspora Ministry in the last 3 years. I seem to remember one idea was to compile a complete list as possible of Serbs/ians living abroad. If the diaspora doesnt feel bothered (for whatever reason) to turn up at the embassy to vote then it doesnt really say much about the supposed strategy to engage ethnic Serbian businessmen to invest in the motherland.
I think its about time that the diaspora ministry isnt used solely to engage with sections of the Serb community sympathetic towards Draza Mihajlovic, followers of the Orthodox church and believers in old Serbian culture (as opposed to contemporary Serbian culture – which there is plenty of).
However, I’m afraid that the diaspora Ministry will again be handed to those with this way of thinking when the cake is divided. It would be really bad the Ministry was handed to Dragan Markovic Palma (from Arkans party) but I suppose its more likely to be given to DSS.
In fact perhaps this is a good topic for an entry at my B92 blog. Cvijus I suppose you will have plenty on this one! Only problem is that I will have to do it both in Serbian and English which kind of doubles the time taken to write it.
These two are right on the money. They put most other analysts on the Balkans to shame.
Malic on the Elections
http://antiwar.com/malic/?articleid=10413
Deliso sums it all up
http://www.antiwar.com/deliso/?articleid=10395
I find the Malic piece interesting in the sense that for him the only important issue is Kosovo.
I dont think anybody in their right mind only thinks of one issue when they vote. As I said Kosovo wasnt an issue that I thought about whilst voting – Serbia will not decide what happens there.
I wish that Malic realised that todays Serbia isnt just about Kosovo, Republika Srpska and outside interference. That may be a magic (and simplistic) combination for readers but it bears little regard for life in contemporary Serbia. The contemporary Serbia, I might add, that he could live in if he choose to (I truly wish he did, and I also wonder when was the last time – if he ever did, he visited Serbia). Nobody I know in Serbia has ever met him (unlike Trifkovic who is here at least a few times per year).
There is only so much analysis one can do from many thousands of killometres away.
Malic also has a personal blog – grayfalcon.blogspot.com – on which he talked about going to Bosnia in November 2006. I have frequently read other references to visits “home” but, again, that might be Bosnia, not Serbia — I have no idea. In any case he goes somewhere in the former Yugoslavia regularly and gets news on the ground there, but it’s possible that it has been Bosnia more often than not.
I think Kosovo IS THE issue unless you’re looking at the whole situation in a completely materialistic way. Kosovo, more than the land ownership issue, is about the Serbian soul and Serbian self-respect. Serbia has been RAILROADED about Kosovo since 1999 and even today LIES are being told about the supposed genocide that was committed there. Too many Serbs are willing to give up both their souls and their self-respect, primarily self-respect, for a chance to rub shoulders with the west and be included in that clique. I know, I know…people must have a decent standard of living and they have to be able to look a head and see a future for their children, but those that think giving up your integrity to become subservient to a conqueror(s) for the sake of the economy are very shortsighted. That kind of economic progress will cost the people of Serbia more than it will give them, and not only in non-material matters but in the material, too. What are they going to do for you LATER if you show them NOW that you are not to be respected and will do most anything just for a chance at the “prize”? This will come back to bite Serbia, and unfortunately it won’t bite those that are in the final analysis responsible for these policies, it will bite the very people whose living standards are supposedly being addressed.
Besides, isn’t materialism a completely communistic philosophy? I thought Serbia had rejected all that when it threw out Milosevic. Well…?