Serbia and Croatia sue each other over genocide

Year and a half after the state of Serbia was acquitted of genocide charges in Bosnia and Hercegovina, the state of Croatia now got a green light to see if it can prove that Serbia committed any genocide on Croatian territory. Serbia will most likely respond with a counter charge – that Croatia committed ethnic cleansing when it expelled from their homes several hundred thousand Serbs in 1995 and made them refugees to Serbia proper. What are the actual chances of these states winning at court and how much damage they can actually do to each other?

Short answers would be “none whatsoever” and “a lot”, respectively.

If the previous Bosnia vs Serbia lawsuit failed, than this one Croatia vs Serbia will fail twice as much. In Serbia vs Croatia case, it may become legally difficult to Serbs who at the time of ethnic cleansing had Croatian citizenship.

It seems to me from this perspective that Croatia, who asked the International Court of Justice in Hague for jurisdiction over the suit back in 1999, could have decided not to press charges further after Bosnia lost the case last year. This way it seems as if Croatia already knows it can’t win, but needs the suit for internal use, ie some small scale political benefit. This leaves Serbia no choice than to file a counter suit, also knowing that chances of success are small. I expect a lot of dirty laundry to come up, both from this war and the WWII, where Serbia will try to connect the genocide of nazi puppet state of Croatia, with todays Croatia.

In short term this will have huge negative impact on relations between the two countries, and will serve only the rise of nationalism on both sides. In long term, it should however settle some unresolved questions and set up a starting point to final reconciliation, but only in theory. In praxis it could have as devastating effect as in the short term.



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