The bloc voting thing has been a major subject in the non-balkan blogs in the ESC aftermath. It seems as if the Western European countries finally realized for sure that it will take much more than an average Eurovision song for any of them to win or at least to be a worthy opponent. It is not rocket science really, and it has even been documented in this million page paper by Derek Gatherer in 2005, which apparently nobody read. Well, neither did I really, but it all comes down to this: Bloc voting exists and it works. Check out this pretty accurate and simple, straight to the point diagram and you should be clear about what Derek is saying:
What you can’t see from the diagram really is the impact of diaspora, or the people living and working in a country outside the block and still voting like crazy for their motherland inside the bloc – i think that Turkey has most benefit here, but we’re not so bad ourselves.
Word of advice for all you Western Europe people reading this: try and organize a bloc of your own next time if you want to have any chance whatsoever. I suggest one big bloc:
France/UK/Ireland/Netherlands/Belgium/Spain/Portugal/Germany/Austria.
Don’t forget, make sure you don’t vote for the countries from other blocks. Allowing for Corsica to secede and giving independence to Basque Country, splitting Belgium in two independent countries and allowing for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to compete separately is also not a bad idea, but I’m not sure if you have time to achieve this in such a short time. Just don’t come bitching if we get a new country in our bloc for next year (hint: Serbia 8 points, Macedonia 10 points, Albania 12 points).
The social impact: Whether Marija is gay or not is still none of my business but the observation made by Reluctant Dragon is so painfully true in this case:
We took a walk to Republic Square to see the spontaneous outpouring of public joy. There was quite a crowd, and it was mostly benign, but naturally there were also significant numbers of football-fan-like types chanting the usual nationalistic slogans along with Marija’s name. These are the same people who would probably beat her up in the street if they suspected she was a Gypsy or if it turned out she actually was gay.
So, I doubt that there is any significant improvement in people’s minds in that area.
Other than that, hypocrisy is in full bloom, with people who previously made all sorts of comments about her looks, national background and sexual orientation behind her back before she went to Finland, are all of sudden trying to be her best friends, to name only one guy is enough – Aleksandar Tijanic. That’s not nice, to put it mildly.
Political implications: Besides Reluctant Dragon, East Ethnia, Pustolovina and Illyrian gazzete are also trying to read between the lines, so be sure to check out their posts.
We could be wandering also about these things: Is Marija’s appearance at the new assembly a sign of support for the new government or is the picture taken near Tomislav Nikolic going to boost the Radical Party popularity even more? Is the fact that Marti Ahtisaari and Oli Rehn congratulated Marija and Serbia going to affect any future development in Kosovo case? Did Russia’s mere five points to us have anything to do with their veto? Do we have to arrest Ratko Mladic if we want other countries not to boycott the event? These are the questions all hanging in the conspiracy theory domain so I’m afraid i don’t believe in any connection between Serbia’s Eurovision victory and Serbia’s political future.
But predicting the next Eurovision contest in Belgrade and all the tiny details lurking in the background, now that is fun. If Kosovo becomes independent, will it be allowed to enter competition and will Serbia be willing to host Kosovo Albanian ESC delegation?
If we suppose that the level of gayness will stay the same until the next year, and i think that’s a pretty basic assumption, will the notoriously predominately homophobic audience in Belgrade boo gay participants off the stage? You tell me.
The only thing i can predict for sure is the lightmotive for the next Eurosong, but that’s not so hard really: be prepared to hear tons of power ballads sung in mother languages by people of unclear sexual orientation.
Latest buzz: Video Shqip claims that the winner song is originally Albanian. I can’t really swear on it, and I’m not defending anybody (the only similarity i see for sure is that both songs suck) but I’ll tell you what – anybody who manages to come up with a tune that doesn’t remind of any other tune already made deserves a bloody Nobel Prize. Here, you be the judge. Not that it matters, though, because such things are impossible to prove anyway – but i do like when someone makes a good buzz out of nothing.
{ 15 comments… read them below or add one }
Viktor, I’ve been thinking about the new country on the block as well, but Kosovo definitely won’t be taking part in Belgrade 2008. Rules are such that you have to hold your national competition once without going to Eurovision before you can send your representative (think Tose Proeski for SCG in 2003). So even if they have their Kosovision now, they won’t take part before 2009.
And as Eurovison is now a matter of national (not just gay) pride, I’m hoping the state will this time do its best to prevent any incidents, ironic as it is. At least I’m sure no one will get booed off stage, as people who will pay for the tickets love this stuff.
Jeez, you really have to be completely deaf or brain dead to find these two songs particularly similar in anything but the rhythm.
As far as the two songs go, they are similar in the way that all pop songs in this style are similar. It seems that with pop music, this kind of thing just comes with the territory, and is usually called influence.
Tijanic was on state tv last night complaining about the way HRT covered eurovision on a live discussion programme last night. The concensus in the Croatian studio was that the decision was political and was also to do with Marija’s sexuality.
HRT apparantly interviewed Tijanic only to cut him off whilst he was making a point. He was really pissed because guests like that Tonci (whatshisname) didnt talk about the song itself.
It does seem a little wierd though, I mean its strange that in private much of the Croatian audience voted for the song but the discussion in public is completely in the context of politics.
Trackback:
Belgrade or bust
For those of you still wanting to read about Serbian ESC success, here is another sum-up by Tim Judah.
Marko, you are probably right about Kosovision – maybe it’s better not to experiment with Kosovo singers in Belgrade anyway. And i certainly hope you are right about the audience in Belgrade. I saw a couple of gay-pride flags in the audience in the RTS broadcast, and was pleasantly surprised but after that i found out that the people waiving them had some sort of police protection, this is still unofficial info though. Still a brave thing to do I think.
Nemanja and Eric,
I see the similarity in the rhythm but i too think that’s it. The video was meant to fire up the discussion between Serbian and Albanian nationalists anyway, as you can see from various flames and wars on the net raging all over the place – on youtube, forums, blogs etc. Got to have some sort of vent i guess.
Bganon,
Thanks for the update on Tijanic, I missed him both on HRT nad RTS, appart from this youtube segment that is. Maybe it’s better than i get a digest like this, the guy only irritates me when i hear him speak for a longer time than one minute.
Jules thx for the trackback and for letting us know about the Balkanizer blog. I’ll be following it in the future.
Why would you put up an article by Tim Judah? To what point? Is this just part of the general promotion here of those that are only too eager to tear Serbia down or what?
Blackbird – Judah is no Noel Malcom (he is not opinionated). His opinion is valid – he was one of the few Balkan commentators who predicted last year that Kosovo talks would be delayed into spring and possibly summer this year. Today that doesnt sound like much but remember western policy makers at the time were talking of winding it all up by the end of last year at the latest.
I havent met the guy personally but have spoken to those who have and he doesnt have any pre-conceived opinion on issues that concern us. That in my mind is a positive. And if he does make mistakes in his work they are honest ones – at least that is the impression I have.
Viktor to me Tijanic seems so much like a bear its unreal. Howling about a fly that bugs him. That head of his (glavonjo), the size of the guy and his attitude. Even the sense that he has something cuddly about him if you get beyond the macho behaviour. Yeah maybe you dont get that last one
Gawwwddd! I’m getting more and more confirmation that there isn’t any hope for Serbia if it’s dominated by this generation holding this kind of blase attitude toward Serbophobes like Tim Judah. Judah spent the 90s AGGITATING for war against the Serbs.
“..doesn’t have any pre-conceived opinion…” — !!!@??#@!!
“If we suppose that the level of gayness will stay the same until the next year, and i think that’s a pretty basic assumption, will the notoriously predominately homophobic audience in Belgrade boo gay participants off the stage? You tell me.”
What exactly is the situation like for gays, lesbians and transgendered people in Belgrade?
“Snapping up Kosovo for a Song”
The politics of Eurovision, etc….nice little article, putting things into perspective.
http://www.exile.ru/2007-May-18/snapping_up_kosovo_for_a_song.html
The basic situation for gay people in Belgrade is that don’t really see any on the streets. This is just my point of view. I’ve visited Belgrade and other parts of Serbia 9 times durins the last 18 months, and I really do think that people are really nice. But my boyfriend – he’s serbian – tells me that gay people aren’t generally mildly looked upon. But I don’t know… We never show that we’re a couple, but I guess people know anyway.
Mayby the point is not to be too obvious??
But I’ve decided to visit one of the gay bars the next time I go there – I want to see, how the gay scene is. I’m used to living in Copenhagen, where you can basically do whatever you want.
But whatever happens – I think that the citizens of Belgrade will get a bit more use to the sight of gay people during two weeks next year
I’m soooo looking forward to going back to Serbia – especially in May next year. The hotel is already booked, and I’m buying my ticket at JAT-airways next month.
See you all next year for a great party
Mads, Copenhagen
Eurotrash sorry Eurovision what utter nonsense the words talent and Eurovision do not go together.Not even good for a laugh.
kosovo next year will go in eurovison because now she is country..BYE from USA…